In three scenarios, the Federal Council outlines possible developments of the pandemic in summer and autumn. They are used to prepare for the coming months and the outlook for winter. The “Corona II Engadin” task force assesses them from the perspective of tourism in Grisons.
The current development of the pandemic in Switzerland is encouraging and the summer season in Grisons has got off to a good start. The “delta variant” of the coronavirus is currently the biggest uncertainty factor, including for tourism. It is already dominating in Great Britain, Russia and Portugal. In Switzerland, it accounts for around 15 percent of the cases analysed. However, it is expected that it will also become the dominant variant in this country.
The federal government's three scenarios
Optimistic scenario
The current development continues like this, and the figures remain low.
episode: The measures that are still in force can be lifted as soon as the part of the population that can and wants to be vaccinated has been vaccinated.
Middle scenario
Infections rise again in autumn and winter because a) not everyone is vaccinated and b) the cold season brings people back indoors.
episode: Measures such as the obligation to wear masks or social distancing rules are being reintroduced.
Pessimistic scenario
New variants of the virus are emerging, against which the available vaccines are not or insufficiently effective.
episode: The federal government and the cantons are once again adopting drastic measures.
Review for Südbünden
The Federal Council regards the medium scenario as the one with the highest probability. The leadership of the task force draws the following conclusions for our region:
- The normalization of tourism operations can continue in summer, autumn and winter.
- Switzerland and Grisons in particular have positive experiences and a good reputation in dealing with the pandemic. These form the basis for guests' trust, which plays a central role when deciding on a holiday destination.
- Thanks to the Covid certificate, international travel, for now in the western world, is becoming easier again. Visitors from abroad are increasingly returning.
- Compared to the winters before the pandemic, a noticeable decline in visitors, particularly from remote markets, must still be expected for the coming winter.
- A certain amount of safety measures will also accompany us through the coming winter. Implementing safety standards as uniformly as possible in our region is a great advantage for the trust of guests, employees and locals.
Taskforce recommendations for the summer
- Under the federal government's medium scenario, vaccination coverage of the population, employees traveling from abroad and foreign guests will remain a central pillar of pandemic control in our region.
The management of the task force continues to recommend that company employees be made aware of the possibility of vaccination and also that they be given the time to get vaccinated. - The remaining protective measures help to reduce further infections among unvaccinated people.
The management of the task force recommends consistently implementing the measures before and behind the scenes. To do this, employees must know how the individual measures work and why their application is still important. Only well-informed and trained teams can competently represent and implement the measures and thus contribute to the trust of our guests.
Christian Gartmann is the initiator of the “Corona II Engadin” task force. He heads the group together with tourism expert Jan Steiner, member of the management board of Engadin St. Moritz destination organization.